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Bond Report: Treasury yields turn mostly lower Friday’s ahead of U.S. consumer price index report


Most Treasury yields turned lower on Thursday, as U.S. stocks relinquished some ground following three straight days of gains.

Meanwhile, bond investors are awaiting the U.S. November consumer-price index report on Friday and a Federal Reserve policy meeting next week.

What are yields doing?
  • The 10-year Treasury note yield

    was at 1.491%, down from 1.508% on Wednesday at 3 p.m. Eastern Time.
  • The 30-year Treasury bond rate

    was at 1.867%, compared with 1.874% a day ago.
  • The 2-year Treasury note

    yields 0.680%, up from 0.677%.
What’s driving the market?

Treasurys dated three years and out were seeing some modest buying on Thursday, nudging prices higher and most yields lower, as U.S. stocks gave up some ground after the market’s open following a three-day rally that drove indexes near records. The recent moves came after a bout of stock selling last week on fears the omicron variant of the coronavirus would slow the economy.

Yields for government debt are still comparatively low historically ahead of a report on consumer inflation on Friday, which could provide the spark for a fresh move in fixed income.

Read: Traders see next U.S. CPI reading close to 7% as volatile markets try to shake off omicron and Federal Reserve’s hawkish pivot

Data released on Thursday showed that weekly U.S. jobless claims sank to a 52-year low of 184,000  in the week after the Thanksgiving holiday, reflecting great reluctance by companies to lay off workers during the biggest labor shortage in decades. The surprisingly big decline stemmed largely from holiday-related quirks and is somewhat exaggerated.

Economists polled by Dow Jones on average had estimated an increase of 211,000 in initial jobless claims for the week ended Dec. 4, after last week’s claims came in at 222,000.

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Meanwhile, an updating reading of U.S. wholesale inventories for October showed a rise of 2.3%, versus economists’ median estimate of 2.2%.

Looking ahead, investors will be watching a $22 billion auction of 30-year Treasury bonds at 1 p.m. Eastern Time, which could influence trading in the market for government debt.

Earlier on Thursday, a decision by Fitch Ratings to lower the credit rating of Chinese homebuilder Evergrande HK:3333 has been blamed for some of the softness in risk assets, with the move igniting fresh fears around the Chinese property sector.

What strategists are saying

“Markets have held very tight to the ‘cumulative’ end game for the potential new tightening cycle. And likely for good reason: history is not on the side of successful liftoff. The elimination of emergency asset purchases is long overdue. But the pathway to neutral (2.50%) will not be an easy one despite what the DOT plot may signal next week,” wrote Greg Faranello, head of U.S. rates at AmeriVet Securities, in a daily note.

Economic Report: Jobless claims sink to 184,000 and hits lowest level since 1969, but it’s not quite as good as it looks

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